ER

“In is in, out is out”

Dear Reader,

As mentioned before here, I have no stake in whether or not the UK will leave Europe. Glynsky and Philippa cannot wait to leave.

As far as I can see, the discussion is way past reason. Politicians and media are willing to lie through their teeth, to motivate voters one way or another. Whether it is through videos full of lies, or misleading statistics and graphics.

Quick question, Glynsky, if exports and employment were so rosy, how come the UK has the highest debt ever? How come the debt keeps growing in this phase of ‘everything is brilliant here’?

I do not expect the following to change anyone’s mind.

Today, the German minister of finance made a very clear statement:

In is in, out is out.

He was referring to the question, what status the UK would have after the Brexit. He said, the UK cannot expect to maintain any beneficial status. Neither similar to Norway, nor Switzerland. You cannot vote to leave the common market and continue to benefit from it.

And that sounds quite reasonable to me. I am aware, that most Brits will see this as yet another interference by an outsider. Stubborn Brexit supporters will say: now more than ever.

So, why am I posting this anyway?

Because Brits have a history of ignoring statements from German finance officials. In September 1992 they ignored a statement by the head of the German central bank. That lead to what is now known as Black Wednesday, the crash of the GBP.

Interesting times are ahead of us,

Engine Room

23 thoughts on ““In is in, out is out”

  1. Yes we’ve got huge debt, but who left us in this mess? Our Labour party of course, as with all socialists – spend, spend, spend and no tomorrow. Three periods of Labour government and as the note left behind said, there’ nothing left in the money box! Prior to them taking over we had a surplus.

    Debt simply refers to the amount of money owed by the UK government. This is the debt that has been built up over many years by many governments – the running total if you like.

    But be careful with the word total. The accepted and widely used figure for debt is actually the net debt of the UK; in other words, the total debt minus the government’s liquid assets.

    As the chart above shows, debt has increased massively in recent years, doubling to more than £1tn in the past five years, largely due to the financial crisis and resulting recession.

    An easy way to compare debt levels across different countries is to express debt as a percentage of total economic output, or GDP, which is why you’ll hear commentators regularly talk about the debt-to-GDP ratio. Obviously this has risen sharply since 2007.

    And, according to the Office for Budget Responsibility, the UK’s stock of debt will keep on rising for a number of years. So if anyone tries to tell you that UK debt is falling, they are wrong.

    The current budget deficit, or surplus, is the difference between the government’s everyday expenses and its revenues; in other words, between what it spends and what it receives. In recent years, it has spent a lot more than it receives, so we are used to hearing about a budget deficit.

    But if the government spends less than it receives, then of course it would run a budget surplus. This may seem a strange concept in today’s economic climate, but between 1998 and 2001 we had four straight years of surplus. In fact, there was a surplus every year between 1947 and 1974.

    Both the government and opposition are pledging to return the current budget to surplus in the next Parliament.

    And there is a direct link between the current budget and debt. If the government runs a deficit, it is effectively overspending and, therefore, in most cases adding to the overall pile of debt. By running a surplus, the government can chip away at this pile.

    All fairly straightforward. The thing is, when most politicians and commentators talk about the deficit, they are not actually talking about the budget deficit. Helpful, isn’t it?

    Quoting Forbes:
    When central bankers, macroeconomists, and politicians talk about the national debt, they often express it as a percent of gross domestic product (GDP) which is a measure of the total value of all goods produced in a country each year. The idea is to compare how much a country owes to how much it earns (since GDP can also be thought of as national income). The problem with this idea is that it is wrong. The government does not have access to all the national income, only the share it collects in taxes. Looked at properly, the debt problem is much worse.

    Read more here…http://www.forbes.com/sites/jeffreydorfman/2014/07/12/forget-debt-as-a-percent-of-gdp-its-really-much-worse/#1c9237766e0c

    No simple solution and mass immigration isn’t helping.

    Philippa

    • Dear Philippa,

      This comment dos not deserve a lengthy reply.

      You are more concerned with who created a mess, rather than seeing the argument?
      Or – heaven forbid – a solution?

      Debt for which you blame Labour is bad, debt accumulated during Torry government is fine?

      Please read about the difference between Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Gross National Product (GNP).

      And while you are at it, read about UK immigration, where those are coming from.
      When done, check how many have been and are recruited by the various UK governments.

      Maybe that will stop those propaganda posts.

      Thanks,
      ER

  2. ER.
    No propaganda here, just facts. Do you expect to carry on unchallenged!
    The Labour government left a huge deficit, the Conservatives took over with this on the books followed by a banking crisis, created by the US banks and causing a world recession. It certainly isn’t fine to have a deficit under the present government, but as I explained it is matter of management.
    When I refer to immigration, it’s not that I am against it, just that it is much too high now and increasing to the extent that it isn’t sustainable in our country at this level.
    The solution is to leave the EU and take back control.

    • Philippa,

      There wasn’t anything challenging or to be challenged.
      And there are no facts in your propaganda posts.
      Could, should, might aren’t facts,
      in case you missed that in your posts.

      Following the unreasonable and unsubstantiated Brexit rants,
      the UK should leave NATO immediately.
      Or did you get to vote there?
      The NATO command, which Britain did not have since founding in the 1950s,
      actually does have command over UK troops.

      And while at it, leave the UN. Not much voting there either,
      a lot of money wasted, corruption, appointed officials,
      get out as fast as you can!

      The biggest joke is, that some Brits discover democratic elections,
      while being subjects to some person, called royalty. And that in the
      21st century. Aren’t the Brexit supporters celebrating
      the birthday of the person, who owns them?

      Hilarious,
      ER

  3. One thing I am certain of. Is that you are not even on the same league as ER Philippa.
    Sorry to burst your bubble.
    If you were then I would say so. He is good. You are just embarrassing.
    I am embarrassing too but hey, I have an excuse.
    Calm the passion, stick to jokes, and if you work hard enough you might just be able to comprehend a little of what he does.
    You have the maturity of a child, even though you might hold an adult job.
    Never liked you, never will!
    Tara

  4. Oh Casper, do you really need to get so personal? This is a debate, with no animosity between anyone, just emotions to one side or other because it grabs one that way.
    Sorry you find me embarrassing, but that isn’t an issue for me and I don’t particularly care. You should look inward a little more before committing to text, it might help you to clarify things better and drop less few-pars!
    Oh and thanks for the compliment of seeing me so young. I am young, but not quite of the years you have expressed, so it does rather give one a new lease of life.

    Gosh ER, we don’t need or want to depart from the UN or NATO. They have a reason for being, unlike the bureaucrats in Brussells. No one is owned here by the Queen. This is the 21st Century, she represents an historic institution, which many cherish, whilst many like me are not too bothered. Democracy was invented here, just like so many other things gathered in by the rest of the world, including football, which I hope we do well in this time.
    Viva Britannia!

    • Philippa,

      The Brits invented democracy? Really?
      The Greek will be glad to hear.
      So will the Romans, and the people from Venice, Genoa, Florence, Pisa, etc.
      Or the Swiss, who could claim to be a democracy since 1291.

      It took some Northern European regions and tribes until the middle
      ages to develop voting rights.

      And what about the English?

      Not before the late 17th century did you get anywhere near some democratic rights, and those were for a few only.
      Do I really have to teach English history to the English here?

      Normally I would ask for the reason of being of NATO.
      Because NATO itself has a hard time answering that question,
      since the fall of the Warsaw Pact.

      But I am afraid the answer will be as qualified as that
      “democracy was invented here” statement.

      Maybe you want to have a look past “Britannia”?

      And if you want to know, why so many Europeans don’t care about the UK,
      it is the attitude expressed in those statements, that leads to
      “why don’t you leave already?”.

      Trumpism seems to be common in the UK too.

      ER

  5. I dont pretend to know better Philippa. I have alot to learn and do in my time and I very much look forward to it! I get a thrill from learning and bettering myself.
    If you are to judge my last year, yup, I have been impossible but my situation has been impossible.
    I think I did alright. Wish I could have done better but I didn’t.
    I still cant believe you wrote that; I am still lolling.
    You should care about being embarrassing – hate it when people get defensive about being shitty, my mum does it all the time, it makes no sense. Why wouldn’t you care, it isn’t a good attribute to have. Anyway, I care about being embarrassing, and childish and immature etc etc and cant wait to rid these attributes.
    Enjoy being embarrassing :-)

  6. What are we going to rant about after 23 June.

    Maybe we should move onto Trump v Hilary.

      • It is also nice to know that Philippa is not naive to how she purposefully likes to annoy people. It makes it easier to ignore her and laugh at her.

  7. I do love getting ER on his high horse! I knew he would come back on us having invented democracy.
    The Witan, along with the folkmoots (local assemblies), is an important ancestor of the modern English parliament. Under Anglo Saxon kings there was an advisory council which takes us back to about 600ad. 1215 saw the common people take power away from the king to set taxes etc., along with Magna Carta. A meeting in 1295 became known as the Model Parliament because it set the pattern for later Parliaments. We had a parliament along side the king by 1694, still not bad.
    The Greeks took until 1843 after ousting king Otto. The Romans had an all powerful emperor, despite having a senate, it took assassinations to remove anyone.
    You forgot Spain, who are probably the oldest from about 1188.
    I agree NATO and the UN could do with a kick up the proverbial A… Whole different organisations, but pretty useless today from what we see of them.
    Interesting that Europeans don’t care about the UK. It took us to intervene against Hitler to ensure the democratic freedoms of all countries in Euroland. I think you are wrong there, many will follow our lead if we do leave, which is touch and go. Not that I’ll care one way or another once the decision is taken, I won’t be around long enough for it to effect me!

    • No horses here, not even ponies.
      But I can stay on topic, and I do not try to prove false claims with more false and irrelevant claims.

      Greek democracy in city states like Athens and Sparta dates back to 500 BC.
      Making your “600 AD” claim more than a bit late for “inventing democracy”.
      And the paradox of having democracy “Under Anglo-Saxon kings …” (sic!) should be obvious.

      That Greece went to having a King and military junta later has nothing to do with
      who invented democracy and when.
      The Roman senate appointed temporary dictators, when they felt
      the democracy was at a grid lock, or when a group had
      amassed too much power. Much later did they have emperors again.
      Like with Greek democracy, this has nothing to do with who invented it.

      Both practiced democracy centuries before England was anywhere near it.

      If you could broaden your horizon to anything outside of England,
      ending the naval gazing, you actually might get things right one day.

      This is tiresome and boring,

      ER

  8. I feel sorry for ER, having someone around who enjoys getting him on a high horse.
    If it was me I would be like” LEAVE ME ALONE YOU CREEP, YOU ARE CREEPY”
    Gosh creepy people are the worst, so many of them even in places of power. #creep

  9. Or I might have a sit down with the said creep and be like.
    ” look creep, you are creepy, but it is cool, I ain’t judging. There many variations of being human and being a creep is one. I understand that you cant help being a creep and I ain’t gone put that against you, you see I ain’t perfect either(I am not a creep) but that is besides the point. This creepyness you have is totally acceptable, you have the right. But just know that I know you are a creep and everytime I look or think about you ill be thinking ‘CREEP!’
    Peace out creep!”

  10. And dont you just hate it when a creep trips over and touches you?
    “Arghhhhhhhhb bleach, bring me 200cc of bleach and get me on a bleach drip, gotta get it off me”

  11. Or when a creep is dedicated to creeping you out at work and every morning you have to mission impossible it to your desk. Cartwheels, jumps, crawling, disguises. I know the feeling.

  12. And we have all had this experience:
    When one your good pals mentions a party you’ll be having and the creep over hears and invites themselves and then you have to fake your own death, move to the forest bear grylls for a couple of months until it is forgotten about.
    Worth it!

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