After the Brexit referendum Glynsky and I debated a lot. We were equally surprised to learn, Glynsky was pro Brexit, and I was against. Not that I had a vote.
After a few arguments, which got quite heated, we agreed to disagree. The always wise Glynsky ended our debate with: “Nobody can predict the future.” I agreed, of course.
Ever since I have been following the news about Brexit. And with news I mean the facts, not the cacophony of opinions, wishes, dreaming, infighting, and inflated egos.
I watched the rising prices in the UK, the continuing losses of jobs, the 32% drop in M&A deals, the decline of real estate value, the downgrading of the UK credit rating by Moody’s. And Brexit hit close to home. Family members, working in the UK for international organizations, were told to look for other positions within their organizations, but outside the UK.
During our debates Glynsky said, the EU needs the UK as much as the UK needs the EU. When challenged, he referred to the EURO clearing and the bond market at London Stock Exchange, and the transatlantic cables to the US. He considered those “must haves” for the EU. That was roughly 15 months ago.
In the meantime the Deutsche Boerse in Frankfurt started offering lower commission on EURO clearing. And the EU started the process for a new law, requiring EURO clearing to happen within the EURO zone.
Plus, an insider told me, the German state of Hesse wants its own direct cable from NYC, across the Atlantic, through the rivers Rhine and Main, directly into Frankfurt.
I interpret these actions, more than anything else, that the EU is preparing for what is called a hard Brexit.